Pakistan’s Outlook & Growth Projections for 2023-24

Pakistan’s economic crisis deepens on average every 2 & ½ years due to a recurring balance of payment crisis, persistent energy crisis leading to mounting circular debt, skyrocketing to the Rs4 trillion Mark, unsustainable trade deficit, stagnation in exports, exchange rate pressures, low reserve cover, alarming low tax revenues & elevated high public debt. Pakistan has been facing the “boom-bust cycle” despite opting for 23 bailout packages from the IMF program, the economy is not out of the woods yet.

According to the National Accounts Committee, Pakistan’s provisional Real GDP figures stand at 0.29% against a full-year target of 5.01% & last year’s revised real GDP figures of 6.10% in 2021-22. The endogenous and exogenous multiple shocks have not only deteriorated Real GDP growth but also skyrocketed the cost of doing business due to the massive Rupee devaluation, the surge in Policy Rate, Energy tariff and taxation effects have led to the extended period of stagflation. This resulted in a loss of a whopping $34 billion in 2022-23 at the cost of economic growth, despite the population’s annual growth rate of 2.55% according to the PBS Digital Census 2023. This leads to the effective growth rate of negative at 2.26% for 2022-23. This 0.29% figure could further slide to negative due to double-digit LSM contraction as the full-year figure comes. Pakistan’s economic growth is viewed as one of the weakest economies in the South Asian region.

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